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There is ongoing debate regarding the merits of decriminalization or outright legalization of commercial sex work in the United States. A few municipalities have officially legalized both the selling and purchasing of sex, while others unofficially criminalize purchasing sex but have decriminalized its sale. In addition, there are many other locales with no official guidance on the subject but have unofficially decriminalized sex work by designating specific areas in an urban landscape safe from law enforcement for commercial sex, by quietly ceasing to arrest sex sellers, or by declining to prosecute anyone selling or attempting to sell sex. Despite these efforts, it remains crucial to understand where in an urban area commercial sex exchanges occur—legalization and decriminalization may result in fewer arrests but is likely to increase the overall size of the sex market. This growth could result in an increase in sex trafficking victimization, which makes up the majority of commercial sex sellers in any domestic market. Given the distribution of prostitution activities in most communities, it is possible to use high-fidelity predictive models to identify intervention opportunities related to sex trafficking victimization. In this research, we construct several machine learning models and inform them with a range of known criminogenic factors to predict locations hosting high levels of prostitution. We demonstrate these methods in the city of Chicago, Illinois. The results of this exploratory analysis identified a range of explanatory factors driving prostitution activity throughout Chicago, and the best-performing model correctly predicted prostitution frequency with 94% accuracy. We conclude by exploring specific areas of under- and over-prediction throughout Chicago and discuss the implications of these results for allocating social support efforts. 

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to impact the United States. While age and comorbid health conditions remain primary concerns in the community-based transmission of the virus, empirical evidence continues to suggest that substantial variability exists in the geographic and geodemographic distribution of COVID-19 infection rates. The purpose of this paper is to provide an alternative, spatiotemporal perspective on the pandemic using the state of Wisconsin as a case study. Specifically, in this paper, we explore the geographic nuances of COVID-19 and its spread in Wisconsin using a suite of spatial statistical approaches. We link detected hot spots of COVID-19 to local geodemographic profiles and the presence of high-risk facilities, including federal and state correctional facilities. The results suggest that the virus disproportionately impacts several communities and geodemographic groups and that proximity to risky facilities correlates to increased community infection rates. 

Given widespread concerns over human-mediated bee declines in abundance and species richness, conservation efforts are increasingly focused on maintaining natural habitats to support bee diversity in otherwise resource-poor environments. However, natural habitat patches can vary in composition, impacting landscape-level heterogeneity and affecting plant-pollinator interactions. Plant-pollinator networks, especially those based on pollen loads, can provide valuable insight into mutualistic relationships, such as revealing the degree of pollination specialization in a community; yet, local and landscape drivers of these network indices remain understudied within urbanizing landscapes. Beyond networks, analyzing pollen collection can reveal key information about species-level pollen preferences, providing plant restoration information for urban ecosystems. Through bee collection, vegetation surveys, and pollen load identification across ~350 km of urban habitat, we studied the impact of local and landscape-level management on plant-pollinator networks. We also quantified pollinator preferences for plants within urban grasslands. Bees exhibited higher foraging specialization with increasing habitat heterogeneity and visited fewer flowering species (decreased generality) with increasing semi-natural habitat cover. We also found strong pollinator species-specific flower foraging preferences, particularly for Asteraceae plants. We posit that maintaining native forbs and supporting landscape-level natural habitat cover and heterogeneity can provide pollinators with critical food resources across urbanizing ecosystems. 

Abstract BackgroundSince the novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 was first identified to be circulating in the US on January 20, 2020, some of the worst outbreaks have occurred within state and federal prisons. The vulnerability of incarcerated populations, and the additional threats posed to the health of prison staff and the people they contact in surrounding communities underline the need to better understand the dynamics of transmission in the inter-linked incarcerated population/staff/community sub-populations to better inform optimal control of SARS-COV-2. MethodsWe examined SARS-CoV-2 case data from 101 non-administrative federal prisons between 5/18/2020 to 01/31/2021 and examined the per capita size of outbreaks in staff and the incarcerated population compared to outbreaks in the communities in the counties surrounding the prisons during the summer and winter waves of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We also examined the impact of decarceration on per capita rates in the staff/incarcerated/community populations. ResultsFor both the summer and winter waves we found significant inter-correlations between per capita rates in the outbreaks among the incarcerated population, staff, and the community.Over-all during the pandemic, per capita rates were significantly higher in the incarcerated population than in both the staff and community (paired Student’s t-testp = 0.03 andp < 0.001, respectively). Average per capita rates of incarcerated population outbreaks were significantly associated with prison security level, ranked from lowest per capita rate to highest: High, Minimum, Medium, and Low security.Federal prisons decreased the incarcerated population by a relative factor of 96% comparing the winter to summer wave (one SD range [90%,102%]). We found no significant impact of decarceration on per capita rates of SARS-COV-2 infection in the staff community populations, but decarceration was significantly associated with a decrease in incarcerated per capita rates during the winter wave (Negative Binomial regressionp = 0.015). ConclusionsWe found significant evidence of community/staff/incarcerated population inter-linkage of SARS-COV-2 transmission. Further study is warranted to determine which control measures aimed at the incarcerated population and/or staff are most efficacious at preventing or controlling outbreaks. 

Public organizations, including institutions in the U.S. criminal justice (CJ) system, have been rapidly releasing information pertaining to COVID-19. Even CJ institutions typically reticent to share information, like private prisons, have released vital COVID-19 information. The boon of available pandemic-related data, however, is not without problems. Unclear conceptualizations, stakeholders’ influence on data collection and release, and a lack of experience creating public dashboards on health data are just a few of the issues plaguing CJ institutions surrounding releasing COVID-19 data. In this article, we detail issues that institutions in each arm of the CJ system face when releasing pandemic-related data. We conclude with a set of recommendations for researchers seeking to use the abundance of publicly available data on the effects of the pandemic. 

Background: Our objective was to examine the temporal relationship between COVID-19 infections among prison staff, incarcerated individuals, and the general population in the county where the prison is located among federal prisons in the United States. Methods: We employed population-standardized regressions with fixed effects for prisons to predict the number of active cases of COVID-19 among incarcerated persons using data from the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) for the months of March to December in 2020 for 63 prisons. Results: There is a significant relationship between the COVID-19 prevalence among staff, and through them, the larger community, and COVID-19 prevalence among incarcerated persons in the US federal prison system. When staff rates are low or at zero, COVID-19 incidence in the larger community continues to have an association with COVID-19 prevalence among incarcerated persons, suggesting possible pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission by staff. Masking policies slightly reduced COVID-19 prevalence among incarcerated persons, though the association between infections among staff, the community, and incarcerated persons remained significant and strong. Conclusion: The relationship between COVID-19 infections among staff and incarcerated persons shows that staff is vital to infection control, and correctional administrators should also focus infection containment efforts on staff, in addition to incarcerated persons. 

Alcohol-related violence remains a serious social and public health problem in the United States. A large corpus of work suggests a positive statistical relationship between alcohol outlet density and violence. However, questions remain as to how neighborhood violence evolves in response to varying access to alcohol outlets. This paper introduces an approach for analyzing the spatial and temporal dynamics of violence and its association with alcohol outlets by embedding the evolution of assault events and outlet density within a spatially heterogeneous Markov chain framework. This framework enables the exploration of spatiotemporal dynamics of alcohol outlets and violence and controls for potentially confounding impacts and spatial heterogeneity. Using a case study at the block group level in Seattle, Washington, the results of this paper suggest that violence is spatially heterogeneous at the local level and locations with sparsely distributed alcohol outlets are less likely to see an increase in violence when compared to areas with higher densities of outlets. Further, the modeling approach helps identify locations that might “tip” into more violent conditions if more outlets were allowed to operate. This paper concludes with a brief discussion of how the methods and results can help improve the management, licensing, and policy development for alcohol outlets in a community. 

Spatial data regularly suffer from error and uncertainty, ranging from poorly georeferenced coordinate pairs to sampling error associated with American Community Survey data. Geographic information systems can amplify and propagate error and uncertainty through the abstraction and representation of spatial data, as can the manipulation, processing, and analysis of spatial data using exploratory and confirmatory statistical techniques. The purpose of this article is to explore and address uncertainty in regionalization, a fundamental spatial analytical method that aggregates spatial units (e.g., tracts) into a set of contiguous regions for strategic purposes, including school districting, habitat areas, and the like. Specifically, we develop a new regionalization method, theuncertain‐max‐p‐regionsproblem that explicitly incorporates attribute uncertainty and allows its impacts to be evaluated with a degree of statistical certainty. We also detail an efficient solution approach for dealing the problem. The results suggest that the developed problem can out‐perform existing regionalization approaches and that the addition of a measure of statistical confidence can help to facilitate more clarity in planning and policy decisions.